The Lab · Exhibit 2 · The playoff roads

The Gauntlet

Every NCAA Division III playoff road since 1995, round by round — the scores, each run's closest call, and how the ladder rated the teams standing in the way. 21-15 across 15 appearances. An exhibit honest enough to label a first-time opponent unrated, and to leave "which road was hardest" as an estimate until an outside source can rate the other side's whole season.

The Roads, Rated

Average opponent rating at kickoff · opponents met for the first time count as average and are flagged
SeasonRecordGamesResultAvg opp EloUnratedEnded by
200410-221-115301University of Mount Union · L 6 - 27
200610-221-11519University of Mount Union · L 3 - 35
201611-232-115162University of Mary Hardin-Baylor · L 16 - 38
200210-221-11512University of Mount Union · L 21 - 42
200811-343-115102University of Mount Union · L 24 - 45
200312-132-115071University of Mount Union · L 10 - 56
202310-221-11501University of Wisconsin-Whitewater · L 42 - 49
20228-310-11500Bethel University · L 32 - 34
201912-132-115001Saint John's University · L 33 - 34
199510-121-115002University of Mount Union · L 14 - 40
201511-121-11500University of Wisconsin-Whitewater · L 17 - 31
202511-343-115002University of Wisconsin - River Falls · L 21 - 46
202110-221-11498Central College · L 28 - 30
201010-221-114951Bethel University · L 10 - 15
201411-121-114891John Carroll University · L 12 - 14

Upsets and Heartbreaks

Playoff wins the ladder least expected, and losses it least expected

Wins against the odds

DateSeasonRoundOpponentResultChance
Nov 29, 20082008Second roundWabash CollegeW 59–2868%
Nov 26, 20162016Second roundNorth Central CollegeW 31–1469%
Nov 23, 20022002First roundAlma CollegeW 42–1470%
Nov 29, 20252025Second roundWartburg CollegeW 28–2473%
Dec 6, 20252025Third roundDePauw UniversityW 49–2474%

Losses the ladder did not see coming

DateSeasonRoundOpponentResultChance
Nov 28, 20152015Second roundUniversity of Wisconsin-WhitewaterL 17–3188%
Nov 19, 20222022First roundBethel UniversityL 32–3485%
Nov 27, 20102010Second roundBethel UniversityL 10–1581%
Nov 27, 20212021Second roundCentral CollegeL 28–3080%
Nov 30, 20022002Second roundUniversity of Mount UnionL 21–4275%

Every Road, Round by Round

Newest first · Elo from Thunder Elo

2025 · 3-1 in the playoffs

11-3 overall · entered rated 1719 · Jesse Scott
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 22, 2025Crown CollegeMcCully StadiumW 76–14+62unrated—
Second roundNov 29, 2025Wartburg CollegeWaverly, IowaW 28–24+4150073%closest call
Third roundDec 6, 2025DePauw UniversityGreencastle, Ind.W 49–24+25150074%
QuarterfinalDec 13, 2025University of Wisconsin - River FallsRiver Falls, Wis.L 21–46-25unrated—
The road ended in the quarterfinal, L 21 - 46 at University of Wisconsin - River Falls. Regular season 8-2.

2023 · 1-1 in the playoffs

10-2 overall · entered rated 1738 · Jesse Scott
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 18, 2023Mount St. Joseph UniversityMcCully StadiumW 41–34+7150084%closest call
Second roundNov 25, 2023University of Wisconsin-WhitewaterWhitewater, Wis.L 42–49-7150374%
The road ended in the second round, L 42 - 49 at University of Wisconsin-Whitewater. Regular season 9-1.

2022 · 0-1 in the playoffs

8-3 overall · entered rated 1742 · Jesse Scott
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 19, 2022Bethel UniversityMcCully StadiumL 32–34-2150085%closest call
The road ended in the first round, L 32 - 34 against Bethel University. Regular season 8-2.

2021 · 1-1 in the playoffs

10-2 overall · entered rated 1786 · Jesse Scott
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 20, 2021Aurora UniversityMcCully StadiumW 63–31+32150088%
Second roundNov 27, 2021Central CollegePella, IowaL 28–30-2149580%closest call
The road ended in the second round, L 28 - 30 at Central College. Regular season 9-1.

2019 · 2-1 in the playoffs

12-1 overall · CCIW champions · entered rated 1794 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 23, 2019Martin Luther CollegeMcCully StadiumW 51–7+44150088%
Second roundNov 30, 2019Central CollegeMcCully StadiumW 49–13+36150089%
QuarterfinalDec 7, 2019Saint John's UniversityMcCully StadiumL 33–34-1unrated—closest call
The road ended in the quarterfinal, L 33 - 34 against Saint John's University. Regular season 10-0.

2016 · 2-1 in the playoffs

11-2 overall · entered rated 1734 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 19, 2016Huntingdon CollegeMcCully StadiumW 45–10+35unrated—
Second roundNov 26, 2016North Central CollegeNaperville, Ill.W 31–14+17154869%closest call
QuarterfinalDec 3, 2016University of Mary Hardin-BaylorBelton, TexasL 16–38-22unrated—
The road ended in the quarterfinal, L 16 - 38 at University of Mary Hardin-Baylor. Regular season 9-1.

2015 · 1-1 in the playoffs

11-1 overall · CCIW champions · entered rated 1785 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 21, 2015Lakeland UniversityMcCully StadiumW 55–6+49150088%
Second roundNov 28, 2015University of Wisconsin-WhitewaterMcCully StadiumL 17–31-14150088%closest call
The road ended in the second round, L 17 - 31 against University of Wisconsin-Whitewater. Regular season 10-0.

2014 · 1-1 in the playoffs

11-1 overall · CCIW champions · entered rated 1751 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 22, 2014Benedictine UniversityMcCully StadiumW 43–14+29147787%
Second roundNov 29, 2014John Carroll UniversityMcCully StadiumL 12–14-2unrated—closest call
The road ended in the second round, L 12 - 14 against John Carroll University. Regular season 10-0.

2010 · 1-1 in the playoffs

10-2 overall · entered rated 1682 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 20, 2010Coe CollegeMcCully StadiumW 31–21+10unrated—
Second roundNov 27, 2010Bethel UniversityMcCully StadiumL 10–15-5149081%closest call
The road ended in the second round, L 10 - 15 against Bethel University. Regular season 9-1.

2008 · 3-1 in the playoffs

11-3 overall · entered rated 1667 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 22, 2008Trine UniversityAngola, Ind.W 14–0+14unrated—closest call
Second roundNov 29, 2008Wabash CollegeCrawfordsville, Ind.W 59–28+31149868%
QuarterfinalDec 6, 2008Franklin CollegeFranklin, Ind.W 45–28+17unrated—
SemifinalDec 13, 2008University of Mount UnionAlliance, OhioL 24–45-21154067%
The road ended in the semifinal, L 24 - 45 at University of Mount Union. Regular season 8-2.

2006 · 1-1 in the playoffs

10-2 overall · CCIW champions · entered rated 1721 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 18, 2006Mount St. Joseph UniversityMcCully StadiumW 42–28+14149583%closest call
Second roundNov 25, 2006University of Mount UnionAlliance, OhioL 3–35-32154368%
The road ended in the second round, L 3 - 35 at University of Mount Union. Regular season 9-1.

2004 · 1-1 in the playoffs

10-2 overall · CCIW champions · entered rated 1694 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 20, 2004Mount St. Joseph UniversityMcCully FieldW 31–7+24unrated—
Second roundNov 27, 2004University of Mount UnionAlliance, OhioL 6–27-21155963%closest call
The road ended in the second round, L 6 - 27 at University of Mount Union. Regular season 9-1.

2003 · 2-1 in the playoffs

12-1 overall · CCIW champions · entered rated 1746 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 22, 2003Hope CollegeMcCully FieldW 55–45+10148886%
Second roundNov 29, 2003Baldwin Wallace UniversityMcCully FieldW 16–12+4unrated—closest call
Third roundDec 6, 2003University of Mount UnionAlliance, OhioL 10–56-46153372%
The road ended in the third round, L 10 - 56 at University of Mount Union. Regular season 10-0.

2002 · 1-1 in the playoffs

10-2 overall · CCIW champions · entered rated 1726 · Mike Swider
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 23, 2002Alma CollegeAlma, Mich.W 42–14+28152270%
Second roundNov 30, 2002University of Mount UnionAlliance, OhioL 21–42-21150375%closest call
The road ended in the second round, L 21 - 42 at University of Mount Union. Regular season 9-1.

1995 · 1-1 in the playoffs

10-1 overall · CCIW champions · entered rated 1744 · J.R. Bishop
RoundDateOpponentSiteResultMarginOpp EloChance
First roundNov 25, 1995Wittenberg UniversityMcCully FieldW 63–41+22unrated—closest call
Second roundDec 2, 1995University of Mount UnionAlliance, OhioL 14–40-26unrated—
The road ended in the second round, L 14 - 40 at University of Mount Union. Regular season 9-0.

Outside the Bracket

Bowl games

2024 · Culver's Isthmus Bowl Champions

Nov 23, 2024University of Wisconsin-StoutSun Prairie, Wis. / Bank of Sun Prairie StadiumW 35–32unrated

Playoff games are inferred from the game log — every game after the last conference game of a season the official year-by-year page marks as a playoff season — and rounds are named from the box score where it says so, otherwise numbered in sequence. The ratings are Wheaton-centric: an opponent is rated only from its games against Wheaton, so a team met once carries a thin rating and a first meeting none at all. That is why "hardest road" is an estimate, and why it is labeled one.